UAE Real Estate Is Settling Into Something More Permanent, Indicates eToro

For years, the UAE real estate market ran on superlatives. Record transactions, record prices, record launches. It was a market that seemed powered by adrenaline, and plenty of observers wondered how long that momentum could hold.

The answer, according to market analysts tracking 2026 closely, is that the question itself may have been the wrong one to ask. What is unfolding now is not the tail end of a boom. It is the beginning of something more considered.

According to Nagham Hassan, Market Analyst at eToro, Dubai registered AED 252 billion in transactions in Q1 2026, up 31% year-on-year, following a record AED 917 billion for the full year 2025. Price growth across 2025 came in at 9.81%, a deliberate step down from the double-digit surges of prior years. Hassan points to a shift in who is driving that activity as particularly significant. The investor base grew to over 193,000 active participants in 2025, with resident investors accounting for more than half of all investment by value. The average time for a renter to transition to ownership now stands at 4.8 years. These are not the patterns of a speculative market. They are the patterns of one that people are committing to.

Regional turbulence in early 2026 tested that conviction. DLD transaction data showed February sales closing at AED 84 billion, followed by a pullback to AED 56 billion in March as buyers paused to assess the situation. April rebounded by 23% to AED 69 billion. According to eToro's analysis, the data suggests the market did not break under pressure. It absorbed it, steadied, and moved forward.

The same resilience was slower to show up in listed stocks. Emaar Properties and Aldar Properties both entered 2026 with what eToro describes as the strongest fundamentals in their respective histories, yet both were caught in sentiment-driven selling tied to geopolitical uncertainty. Emaar's revenue backlog stands at AED 163.4 billion, up 29% year-on-year. Aldar reported revenue growth of 12%, EBITDA growth of 22%, and carries AED 38.2 billion in total liquidity. The gap between those numbers and current stock prices, eToro notes, reflects fear rather than fundamentals, and represents what the firm sees as a compelling medium-term case for both.

The path ahead carries variables. A resolution to ongoing regional tensions could act as a catalyst, accelerating the repricing of both stocks toward their underlying value. Further escalation could trigger another round of sentiment-driven volatility. But eToro's view is that Emaar and Aldar are more insulated than most, with revenues backed by escrow-protected sales, long-term backlogs, and recurring income streams that do not move with a news cycle.

The broader signal from 2026 so far, according to eToro, is that the UAE real estate market is no longer a short-term trade. It is a long-term destination, for global capital and for the growing number of people who have simply decided to make it home.

(All figures and analysis in this article are sourced from eToro's market commentary and represent eToro's views alone.)